2010 Mariner's Season Preview
The 2010 Mariners are a very intriguing team. They had arguably the best off season of the year, picking up Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman. They did lose Jarrod Washburn at the trade deadline last year, and elected not to resign Adrian Beltre or Russell Branyan. GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu have built the team using a leading edge mixture of defensive metrics and traditional scouting. They have put together a squad based around playing stellar defense, great pitching and players with solid on-base-percentages. While most teams were still concentrating on offensive metrics, Mr. Z went out and discovered Franklin Gutierrez with these metrics, Gutierrez was acquired cheaply, and then just happened to become the best defensive player in the big leagues, by a large margin according to metrics. This year’s Mariners are a test trial that all other front offices in the league are watching to see if a team can be built with defense and pitching alone, using advanced defensive metrics.
2010 Position Players
Outfielders:
LF: Milton Bradley
CF: Franklin Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro
OF: Eric Byrnes
OF: Ryan Langerhans
The Mariner’s outfield is one of the best in the league, with the already mentioned best outfielder in the game, Franklin Gutierrez in center, Ichiro a 9 time gold glove winner in right field, and a bit of a platoon with Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes in left, with Milton being slightly above average defensively, and Byrnes being a excellent defender and capable of playing all three spots. Langerhans provides quality defensive backup for all three spots. Ichiro will have his 220 hits and hopefully he and Figgins will combine to get on base enough for our powerless cleanup hitters to hit in just enough to win games. Bradley if he stays out of trouble, and produces like he did the last time he was happy in Texas, that’ll be good, however he’s never been more than 20 homerun a year guy. Gutierrez just needs to repeat last years line of .283 BA and 18 homers with his stellar defense.
Infielders:
1B: Casey Kotchman
2B: Chone Figgens
one Figgins
SS: Jack Wilson
3B: Jose Lopez
3B/1B: Matt Tuiasosopo
The infield is also very good defensively and very different than last years opening day outfield. Kotchman, Figgins, and Wilson all have arrived within the last half season, and Tuiasosopo has very limited time on the major league roster. All three Kotchman, Figgins, and Wilson are top five defenders at their positions, although Figgins is making a switch from 3B to 2B which is expected to go well. That switch, Lopez to third and Figgins to second is a bold move. It makes sense if you look at both players physical tools. Lopez has a better arm, and questionable range, and Figgins has better range and better suited to pull double plays. Jack Wilson will easily be able to cover extra ground for Lopez at third, and him and Figgins will form a great double play duo. The complete lack of Infield depth is sketchy until Jack Hannahan returns, as we only have a backup 3B in Matt Tuiasosopo.
On the offensive side of things Figgins will be a very good #2 hitter, Wilson will hopefully prove he’s better than the .224 hitter he showed last season with the M’s. Kotchman, a touted prospect coming out, has never really found his stroke since his rookie year, if he can find it’ll mean wonders for the offense. Lopez needs to continue to improve, and maybe this will be the year he learns what the words plate discipline mean. He was in trade rumors this winter, and still has potential to be shipped out. I still think the Mariners should have just paid Beltre his cash, kept him at third, giving us the best infield in baseball, and traded Lopez for a decent starting pitcher, or prospects.
2010 Position Players
Outfielders:
LF: Milton Bradley
CF: Franklin Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro
OF: Eric Byrnes
OF: Ryan Langerhans
The Mariner’s outfield is one of the best in the league, with the already mentioned best outfielder in the game, Franklin Gutierrez in center, Ichiro a 9 time gold glove winner in right field, and a bit of a platoon with Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes in left, with Milton being slightly above average defensively, and Byrnes being a excellent defender and capable of playing all three spots. Langerhans provides quality defensive backup for all three spots. Ichiro will have his 220 hits and hopefully he and Figgins will combine to get on base enough for our powerless cleanup hitters to hit in just enough to win games. Bradley if he stays out of trouble, and produces like he did the last time he was happy in Texas, that’ll be good, however he’s never been more than 20 homerun a year guy. Gutierrez just needs to repeat last years line of .283 BA and 18 homers with his stellar defense.
Infielders:
1B: Casey Kotchman
2B: Chone Figgens
one Figgins
SS: Jack Wilson
3B: Jose Lopez
3B/1B: Matt Tuiasosopo
The infield is also very good defensively and very different than last years opening day outfield. Kotchman, Figgins, and Wilson all have arrived within the last half season, and Tuiasosopo has very limited time on the major league roster. All three Kotchman, Figgins, and Wilson are top five defenders at their positions, although Figgins is making a switch from 3B to 2B which is expected to go well. That switch, Lopez to third and Figgins to second is a bold move. It makes sense if you look at both players physical tools. Lopez has a better arm, and questionable range, and Figgins has better range and better suited to pull double plays. Jack Wilson will easily be able to cover extra ground for Lopez at third, and him and Figgins will form a great double play duo. The complete lack of Infield depth is sketchy until Jack Hannahan returns, as we only have a backup 3B in Matt Tuiasosopo.
On the offensive side of things Figgins will be a very good #2 hitter, Wilson will hopefully prove he’s better than the .224 hitter he showed last season with the M’s. Kotchman, a touted prospect coming out, has never really found his stroke since his rookie year, if he can find it’ll mean wonders for the offense. Lopez needs to continue to improve, and maybe this will be the year he learns what the words plate discipline mean. He was in trade rumors this winter, and still has potential to be shipped out. I still think the Mariners should have just paid Beltre his cash, kept him at third, giving us the best infield in baseball, and traded Lopez for a decent starting pitcher, or prospects.
Designated Hitters:
DH/1B: Mike Sweeney
DH: Ken Griffey, Jr
At first glance, the fact we kept both Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney is very questionable, since neither can play in the field and neither hit that well anymore. However we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of chemistry by having these players on the roster, and they do provide a little more pop in their bats than who would replace them, albeit zero versatility. Especially with the volatile Milton Bradley on the team, and keeping Ichiro happy, which he obviously wasn’t in the dismal 2008 season. Griffey was guaranteed to stay just due to how much the fans love him, but Sweeney was a surprise. He was helped by playing very well down the stretch last year and a good spring this year.
Catchers:
C: Rob Johnson
C: Adam Moore
Rob Johnson has developed an excellent rapport with the pitching staff, and plays solid defense, and has a well below average bat. Adam Moore is a young catcher who will use this season to get his feet wet and develop his swing, if he comes around early it will help a lot to get some offensive production out of the catcher position, since Johnson provides none.
2010 Pitchers
Rotation:
RHP Felix Hernandez
RHP Ian Snell
LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith
RHP Doug Fister
LHP Jason Vargas
With Cliff Lee and Bedard both out, the starting lineup is pretty scary looking right now. Our regular 4-5 guys are the 2-3 starters, and Ian Snell is in no way guaranteed to be any better than last year, and he was terrible last year. Pitching injuries are known to linger so if Bedard or Lee struggle to return to form, especially likely in Bedard’s case, we’ll be stuck using borderline major league quality players. That is something we can’t have with a returning lineup short in run producers. However if they both return to top form, the starting pitching is ridiculously good. Cliff Lee and Felix are both serious Cy Young contenders, and Bedard is a number one for half the league. Rowland-Smith can eat up innings and is pretty solid for the fifth starter, and Ian Snell has the ability to pitch like a number two, but he hasn’t proven he can do it yet in an M’s uniform. In a 5 game series, this is the scariest team in the league to play, with them being able to field an ace in 4 of the five games, with Felix pitching twice. All this depends on how Bedard responds to his shoulder surgery; so far he is way ahead of schedule, so that’s a good sign. We still might add Jarrod Washburn, which I think is a very good idea. It would kick RRS into the bullpen where he excelled previously, and give the M’s another experienced starter, and last year he played like an ace with a 2.64 ERA until his injury after his trade to Detroit, when he tanked. His FIP of 4.58 says he is average, but if he plays anything like he did in last year’s first half, the M’s would be serious World Series contenders.
Bullpen:
RHP David Aardsma, Closer
RHP Shawn Kelley, Middle Relief
RHP Brandon League, Setup
RHP Mark Lowe, Setup
RHP Kanekoa Texeira, Long Relief
RHP Sean White, Middle Relief
The bullpen goes all righty, they performed far above expectations last year, and improved this year. They picked up Brandon League a fire-baller from Toronto for Brandon Morrow, and Sean White is returning from injury. Aardsma came out of nowhere last year to take the closer spot, and has his work cut out for him to repeat. If the starters perform like they should, the bullpen should not get near as overworked like last year, where it seemed like every game but when Felix pitched, they came in in the 5th inning.
DH/1B: Mike Sweeney
DH: Ken Griffey, Jr
At first glance, the fact we kept both Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney is very questionable, since neither can play in the field and neither hit that well anymore. However we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of chemistry by having these players on the roster, and they do provide a little more pop in their bats than who would replace them, albeit zero versatility. Especially with the volatile Milton Bradley on the team, and keeping Ichiro happy, which he obviously wasn’t in the dismal 2008 season. Griffey was guaranteed to stay just due to how much the fans love him, but Sweeney was a surprise. He was helped by playing very well down the stretch last year and a good spring this year.
Catchers:
C: Rob Johnson
C: Adam Moore
Rob Johnson has developed an excellent rapport with the pitching staff, and plays solid defense, and has a well below average bat. Adam Moore is a young catcher who will use this season to get his feet wet and develop his swing, if he comes around early it will help a lot to get some offensive production out of the catcher position, since Johnson provides none.
2010 Pitchers
Rotation:
RHP Felix Hernandez
RHP Ian Snell
LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith
RHP Doug Fister
LHP Jason Vargas
With Cliff Lee and Bedard both out, the starting lineup is pretty scary looking right now. Our regular 4-5 guys are the 2-3 starters, and Ian Snell is in no way guaranteed to be any better than last year, and he was terrible last year. Pitching injuries are known to linger so if Bedard or Lee struggle to return to form, especially likely in Bedard’s case, we’ll be stuck using borderline major league quality players. That is something we can’t have with a returning lineup short in run producers. However if they both return to top form, the starting pitching is ridiculously good. Cliff Lee and Felix are both serious Cy Young contenders, and Bedard is a number one for half the league. Rowland-Smith can eat up innings and is pretty solid for the fifth starter, and Ian Snell has the ability to pitch like a number two, but he hasn’t proven he can do it yet in an M’s uniform. In a 5 game series, this is the scariest team in the league to play, with them being able to field an ace in 4 of the five games, with Felix pitching twice. All this depends on how Bedard responds to his shoulder surgery; so far he is way ahead of schedule, so that’s a good sign. We still might add Jarrod Washburn, which I think is a very good idea. It would kick RRS into the bullpen where he excelled previously, and give the M’s another experienced starter, and last year he played like an ace with a 2.64 ERA until his injury after his trade to Detroit, when he tanked. His FIP of 4.58 says he is average, but if he plays anything like he did in last year’s first half, the M’s would be serious World Series contenders.
Bullpen:
RHP David Aardsma, Closer
RHP Shawn Kelley, Middle Relief
RHP Brandon League, Setup
RHP Mark Lowe, Setup
RHP Kanekoa Texeira, Long Relief
RHP Sean White, Middle Relief
The bullpen goes all righty, they performed far above expectations last year, and improved this year. They picked up Brandon League a fire-baller from Toronto for Brandon Morrow, and Sean White is returning from injury. Aardsma came out of nowhere last year to take the closer spot, and has his work cut out for him to repeat. If the starters perform like they should, the bullpen should not get near as overworked like last year, where it seemed like every game but when Felix pitched, they came in in the 5th inning.
Conclusion
This team was very hyped by the media this offseason, much to the delight of spotlight starved Seattle sports fans, quickly named the team to beat in the AL West. This just isn’t the truth though. The lack of offense on the team is a serious issue, and injuries for the starters are something that could linger all year. The team was one of the more overachieving teams in baseball history, winning 85 games despite being outscored by 52 runs. That generally means regression for teams the next year, but we’ll see. If the defense improves as it should, and the top of the staff pitch to their potential a division crown is possible. More importantly, homeruns aren't the only way to score runs, it might take a little more work, but this team is built for small ball, and Wakamatsu isn't afraid to call the suicide squeeze, or use 6 different lineups in 6 games. Whatever happens 2010 will prove to be a incredibly interesting year, and expect a lot one run thrillers that come down to the last at bat. In Z we trust.
Projected Record: 89- 73, Second place in AL West
By: Ben Saari
This team was very hyped by the media this offseason, much to the delight of spotlight starved Seattle sports fans, quickly named the team to beat in the AL West. This just isn’t the truth though. The lack of offense on the team is a serious issue, and injuries for the starters are something that could linger all year. The team was one of the more overachieving teams in baseball history, winning 85 games despite being outscored by 52 runs. That generally means regression for teams the next year, but we’ll see. If the defense improves as it should, and the top of the staff pitch to their potential a division crown is possible. More importantly, homeruns aren't the only way to score runs, it might take a little more work, but this team is built for small ball, and Wakamatsu isn't afraid to call the suicide squeeze, or use 6 different lineups in 6 games. Whatever happens 2010 will prove to be a incredibly interesting year, and expect a lot one run thrillers that come down to the last at bat. In Z we trust.
Projected Record: 89- 73, Second place in AL West
By: Ben Saari